105 ordspråk av Diane Swonk

Diane Swonk

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It was an extraordinary quarter for productivity growth. Katrina was expected to lop off growth and give us a crippled and less efficient quarter. Instead, it showed how remarkably resilient the U.S. economy was both in response to the hurricanes and the energy shocks that accompanied them.

The minutes confirm the Fed is almost done (raising rates).

It confirms that the Fed is almost done. Those looking for higher rates are not looking at the economy the same way as the Fed.

My own view is that full employment is closer to 4 to 4.5 percent -- probably closer to the 4.5 percent range.

We're more productive than we were in the 90s and frankly we didn't start hitting wage pressures in the 90s until about a 4-3/4 percent unemployment rate.

Once you really start having bidding wars over people and you're willing to employ just about anyone who breathes, it's amazing what happens to the labor force participation rate.

It's about the Fed being more communicative with the markets, ... won't just be walking into Greenspan's shoes.

Steakhouses all of a sudden don't look so good, but people don't stop eating,

By the end of the year, there will be some builders with some overhang of construction relative to demand, ... Now's the time when you'd hope everybody cools off a bit and moderates their building, but that's not human nature -- and it's not the way for homebuilders to make money in the near term.

When the economy goes back down again, years down the road, will consumer credit be a major problem, like it was in the 1990-91 recession? ... Yes, it could come back to haunt us. But right now, it's a macroeconomic plus.

As auto sales taper off, we'll see a reallocation of spending. A resolution of the Iraq situation will cause a relief rally and get companies to invest back into the business, ... Also, oil prices will plummet and that typically stimulates real income growth.

Retailers ordered extremely conservatively for the holiday season. The shelves aren't overly abundant with goods, and controlling inventories has finally made it into broad retailers, not just Wal-Mart, ... That's important because it means a lot of the early promotions we've seen have brought the consumers in, but has left less on the shelves with less selection.

The Fed needs firm evidence that the tire has hit the ground and that we're really moving forward in a very firm way, ... They're going to wait to see second quarter GDP [gross domestic product] and more evidence that business investment and equipment spending, especially in IT [information technology] is firm before they move to start normalizing rates.

It's a lot better than 1990-91, when we started out from a lower level, ... The bottom line is, consumers are going to be just fine. There's not going to be a bubble, like when we had 3.9 percent unemployment [in April 2000]. The labor market will tighten enough again, but for the moment it's going to be more balanced.

It will be very interesting to see Fed's decision today, which may include them standing pat in terms of no move on interest rates, and there is chance here they will now talk about risks being balanced between recession and recovery,

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