15 ordspråk av Edward McKelvey

Edward McKelvey

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 Clearly they think the basis for a recovery is still quite fragile. They're probably still thinking in terms of one more step of easing. [Wednesday's] numbers won't greatly change the calculus.

 If under these circumstances the F.O.M.C. is prepared to keep going, then this means that the committee is more worried about the longer-term risk of higher inflation than the shorter-term risk of a collapse in growth.

 In our view, the financial markets are much too complacent about what a decision to keep tightening means at this juncture.

 Is the market concerned about it? Yes. Is it a significant concern? I doubt it.

 It would be minimal,

 It would be minimal. In a broad perspective, we shouldn't really be looking for a tremendous slowdown.

 The data suggest the pace of unemployment's rise is lessening, ... They don't tell you you'll get a turnaround, but they're encouraging.

 The data suggest the pace of unemployment's rise is lessening. They don't tell you you'll get a turnaround, but they're encouraging.

 The easing the Fed has already done has had a focused and limited effect, mainly on sales of homes and automobiles. It's not clear another rate cut will have much effect. I think fiscal easing is more effective at this point; it more directly puts money in people's pocketbooks.

 The inflow into that group [of continuing claims] is not as big, ... The outflow is problematic.

 The inflow into that group [of continuing claims] is not as big. The outflow is problematic.

 The really surprising thing is the lack of inflation given this kind of growth.

 This is a confirmation that weather probably was a factor holding up activity [in November], but underneath the surface, the setback in December isn't even what it looks like. What I'm calling attention to specifically is the fact that single-family starts actually rose about 3.6 percent, while all the setback was in multi-family units.

 Trade is a drag (on growth) and that tends to hit manufacturing harder than the rest of the economy.

 We had expected an upward revision in the second-quarter G.D.P. estimate on the basis of other recently released data, ... but trade kind of goes in the opposite direction.



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