The U.S. and global economies are like the walking wounded, ... It's not a matter of whether they will fall, but of when. |
The U.S. uses 20 million barrels of oil a day. Prices are currently inflated by about $15 a barrel, and that additional cost is effectively a $300 million dollar-a-day tax on Americans, eating away at disposable income for people in this country, |
The volume of lost production will be significantly greater than that lost under Ivan. Not one company that was affected has been able to restore its production 100 percent. |
The warm weather in the U.S. may be cutting demand for oil by 1 million barrels per day. |
Their margins are extremely strong. |
There are mandatory evacuations in the Galveston area, and most of the operating companies near Texas City are preparing to shut down completely by this Friday. They believe, at best, they will be shut down for three days, maybe as long as a week. |
There have been serious discussions by politicians from both parties about pushing for windfall profit tax. That's what has the industry terrified. |
There is no reason for the prices to fall when people are obsessed with the possibility of supply disruptions and the fact that prices are not slowing demand. |
There is speculation that Texaco would be the next takeover target, but on fundamentals, Texaco is a very cheap stock, very high leverage to both oil prices and gas prices and both moving higher, |
There isn't enough spare refining capacity around to offset these unpredictable events, ... We were stretched before the hurricane; the hurricane made a bad situation worse. |
There's hope that an increase in demand will bring down what is perceived to be current high level of inventory, ... But that has not happened. We haven't seen significant declines in inventory levels around the world. That has influenced OPEC's decision. |
These governments are totally unpopular and repressive. The only thing they have going for them is buying stability, throwing money at their friends and enemies. |
These stocks are not reflecting $50 or $60 oil. They are probably reflecting $40 oil. But this is not realistic. The fundamentals support a higher price. |
These two companies are rearranging the seats around the table of the biggest game in town. They are prepared for $12 oil; they are looking beyond that, |
They may not be just forming an alliance but instead merging where they won't have different mindsets but a single set of goals, |