52 ordspråk av Gerard Burg

Gerard Burg

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There is a bit of a time-lag in all this, but a prolonged cool spell should see a real impact on heating oil stocks, which until now have been robust.

We've still got a capacity squeeze from that area. Demand has been very strong short-term and we expect it will be strong next year.

Even with this weather it's not been enough to drive prices considerably lower. Once again we've got that overhanging thought that things could turn colder again and the supply situation still isn't that good. That's supporting prices where they are.

It is likely that we are going to see demand for heating oil rise in Europe as end-users look for alternatives to gas.

Prices are expected to ease in 2007 as expanding refinery capacity reduces some of the bottleneck in that sector. However, the likely strength of oil demand, as well as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' intention to support higher prices will maintain crude oil prices at historically high levels.

We should see pressure to shift to heating oil if natural gas supply can't meet demand, and the shift to distillates will push prices up further.

This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway,

We saw last year just how much oil shot up after Ivan, ... Crude markets remain delicately balanced and if Katrina causes substantial damage to production facilities, oil prices will exceed $US70 and could push toward $US80 a barrel.

This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway.

With refineries ramping up at maximum capacity and with the weather having been warmer than usual over the past two weeks, the build was not that much of a surprise.

Such an outcome would result in base metal prices falling well below our forecast levels.

The upward revision in prices is made tentatively – given the lack of fundamental support for current high prices and the traditional volatility of speculative funds.

At least for the short term this has removed some of the concerns that we might see, first of all, some sanctions imposed and then a cut in output as a response. The situation is unresolved and this still leaves the potential for further events to influence prices.

Certainly the fundamental picture doesn't look particularly strong. Stocks in the U.S. are still very high, and while forecasts I've seen for weather for next week suggest it should be considerably colder, heating oil stocks look as if they should be sufficient to last through the winter.

Market focus will remain firmly on Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and the potential for lower oil production from these countries in response to ongoing political crises.

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