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Gwyn Hacche

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French inflation figures surprised on the up-side for a change. Normally they come in below expectations.

It can't be entirely ruled out, but it looks unlikely to me.

The surprise would be if they cut rates by 50 basis points or didn't cut them at all.

This reflects general globalization trends.

Growth in euro-land economies is starting to come through, particularly in the industrial sector. It looks to us as if there will be strong growth in the third and fourth quarter of around 1 percent.

Both [the French and the euro-zone data] reflect higher oil prices rather than any rise in underlying inflation.

The ECB will want to signal that it doesn't want to see the headline inflation rate translate through into higher wage settlements next year.

Although weaker than expected, interpretation of the release is clouded by the unusual drop in food sales in August and, as is often the case, the MPC will be waiting for the next month's release to get a better picture of the underlying trend.

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