67 ordspråk av Henry Blodget

Henry Blodget

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We would therefore remain cautious about adding new money to online advertising-driven stocks until the first or second quarter, when we should have better visibility. We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter, with only 10 percent year-over-year growth.

Management maintained full-year 2001 target of 20-to-30 percent revenue growth. To be conservative, we are trimming our estimate from $3.3 billion to $3.2 billion.

We continue to think some upside is possible to these estimates, despite weakness in the online advertising market. We are not looking for as much upside as in the past, however.

Settlement talks, if any, will likely be very complex, with multiple parties involved.

If the talks proceed well, it is possible the case could be settled by the end of the year.

Some legal experts believe that the appeals court ruling will have a ripple effect overseas, leading to increased activity in a region where Microsoft lacks the political clout that it has in the U.S..

After that point, it is likely that the case could be appealed to the Supreme Court, which could add at least another six months to the outcome. So the case may not conclude until 2003.

We believe AOL and Time Warner are in the final stages of gaining approval from U.S. and Europe regulatory commissions. We do expect any concessions that would materially impact future performance.

Given what these stocks have done, the people who are left behind start looking for other opportunities.

Our estimate for fourth quarter product revenue is approximately $1 billion. To achieve our estimate, we believe Amazon has to book about $750 million in the eight week holiday season. Our back-of-the-envelope analysis of the Delight-O-Meter suggests it is off to a solid start.

We also believe such controversy, if any, would come at a poor time for Microsoft, given that the company is awaiting the Appeals Court ruling on the existing antitrust trial. As a result, we believe it is possible that this could put a damper on the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.

Near-term forecasts call for pain, especially in the travel sector.

We think the Internet is tremendously profound. It will continue to have an effect on the global economy over the next five-to-10 years. But there's no way that it is a large enough opportunity to support the 400 companies that have gone public. And I think if you look back in history at different emerging industries, we've often had this feeling that the PCs for example are going to change the world. All you have to do is buy a PC company and you're safe. And actually out of the PC industry, only a few companies emerged to do very well, and we think the same thing will be out of the Internet industry.

The biggest challenge AOL faces is really controlling its usage-based cost structure.

I could see Amazon and eBay merging. Amazon operates in a huge market, but it's got lower margin revenue. eBay has higher margin revenues, but the secondhand and small-business markets will always be limited relative to the size of the retail market. Combine the two, though, and that could be a very powerful entity.

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