During the time when so few hurricanes hit North America, we as a society framed decisions about land use, construction standards and other aspects of our lives around the shores of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, ... Built into those plans was the unstated assumption that hurricanes would continue to stay away from our shores as they had for the last third of a century. |
From 1970 to 1995, there weren't that many hurricanes, and the ones we had were nice, well-mannered, housebroken hurricanes that stayed out to sea and didn't make a mess. |
If I were really astute, ... I'd go out tonight and seed the clouds, and when the winds drop I'd claim, `I saved Houston! For $50 million, I'll do it again. |
Rich people tend to live on the coast. We all like to live at the beach. The bottom line is that we formed a lot of attitudes based on good luck. Now, damage has gone up because fixed assets have increased exponentially. |
The consensus among hurricane researchers and forecasters is that the hurricane landfalls of 2004 resulted from the AMO, a natural cycle of hurricane activity, combined with a lapse in the incredibly good fortune of the previous 35 years. |
The estimates are flaky. I think the [warming] signal is there, but the data problems are leading us to exaggerate it. |
The suggestion I heard was, pull it with mini-subs, |
There is no reason not to expect a real active season. |
This cycle has been repeating back to the Ice Age. It's related to changes in the ocean currents that move heat northward. If it's fast, we get a lot of hurricanes. |
This is the nailbiting time for forecasters, ... We're waiting for Bertha to make her turn to the northeast but there's some uncertainty about when it will happen. |
We aren't talking about a whole lot of money. |
We don't know what was going on out in the middle of the ocean. |
You can't really get by with a serious landfall that hits developed coastline without doing a few billion dollars in damage, |
You'd need a lot of mini-subs. |