A million sounds pretty high. I have a hard time seeing that from just existing fields and rehabilitation. |
Even if the refineries are OK, they could be starved of their imports. |
I think sanctions that impact oil flows from Iran are very unlikely. The Chinese are major importers of Iranian crude and they would not be too happy to see that. |
If all the fears start to come true we could be getting to some high price levels. |
Iraq has a lot of potential, but lots of things have to go right. We see no sign of that happening. |
Katrina blew a big hole in the product market. If Rita doubles that, we are in for some serious problems. |
Now we have a hurricane heading for the bigger part of the coastal refinery center, threatening to blow a huge hole in products supply. |
OPEC is going to have to go back to some supply management again if they are going to hold a (price) floor. It should be easy for them to manage, it's not like they have to cut a lot they will still be at high output levels. |
People are covering their positions before the weekend. We don't know what's going to happen with Iran. |
People are going to run as hard as they can. The price incentives are there. |
People were worried post-Katrina as we have real tight product supply, |
Refiners are already going to be feeling a bit of a pinch in their ability to provide supply, and importers as well. |
There's some new problems and challenges ahead in the national switch to ethanol. |
This is significantly slower than the recovery from (Hurricane) Ivan, ... The easy stuff has been brought back. ... Now the tough stuff is ahead of us. |
This really comes down to what can Saudi Arabia do. |