An interesting fact about the bond market is that it displays a strong seasonality. Seasonality is as strong as you would find in some agricultural commodities. Within that, the pattern is that it rallies through the end of the year until Christmas Day. |
In the Greenspan days, if he said that we're done, we'd be at 5% odds of fed funds hike in June by now. |
That was the type of reaction that we were looking for from the Asia crisis...to have weakness in stocks at the same time you'd have strength in bonds. |
The domestic economy is very strong and these numbers are yet another indication of it. |
The Fed will raise rates at least two more times and probably more than that. |
There really isn't anything in this report that suggests that inflation numbers are going to turn for the worst. |