A 'no change' outcome looks virtually certain. |
Average earnings growth was far softer than anticipated. It remained at 3.5% ... and is well below the 4.5% rate that the Bank of England has in the past considered compatible with its inflation forecast. |
Euro-zone data flow this morning will encourage further hawkish rhetoric from the ECB. |
Hurricane insurance payouts will not recur, we expect the deficit to narrow sharply again in Q4 2005. The negative impact on sterling from today's release should be short-lived. |
Hurricane insurance payouts will not recur, we expect the deficit to narrow sharply again in Q4 2005. Therefore the negative impact on sterling from today's release should be short-lived. |
Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter. |
The (confidence) report will offer further support for the bond bears and help to push up rate hike expectations, as will news that existing home sales were stronger than expected. |
The risk for the U.S. is that the housing market there may slow markedly, so you can actually argue that for once the UK is actually leading the U.S.. |
This ... will boost hopes that activity in the first half of 2006 will remain robust. It will also increase talk of the Fed raising rates again in May, to 5%. |
Today's data is very weak, which adds to our concern about the prospects for consumer activity and the housing market in the months ahead. |
We're probably going to get two members who go for a cut. The data isn't pointing in one direction enough for the rest of the committee to go with them just yet. |