After this next round, people are going to be hugely down on things. People are going to say the economy lost all its momentum at the end of the third quarter. |
As growth stays sluggish and prices rise, companies are more hard-pressed to keep profits from declining. So they say, 'Sorry, we have to charge more'. They can't get away with that on discretionary stuff because people will hold off, but people will be stuck paying higher prices for need-type goods and services. It becomes a circular thing. |
I couldn't believe it -- first time in 10 years they did the right thing. Obviously, I think it's perfect. |
I feel strongly that a ham sandwich with a scepter would be a fine Fed chairman. In fact, I think a ham sandwich with a scepter might do a better job because it wouldn't be politically motivated. |
I would characterize [the current situation] as a mix between price stability and the potential for slightly annoying inflation numbers going forward. |
I'm expecting Friday's numbers to print poorly. If that happens I will tell clients they should expect the Fed to cut by a half point. |
It seems to me that markets aren't going to be too happy if its just a replacement thing. |
It's generally the case that if you push through tax cuts, over time, it will stimulate activity; and as growth accelerates, you'll start to get revenue increases back. |
It's really just a waiting game. You can't expect excesses to be done correcting just because you want them to be done correcting. |
It's surprising that out of all the commentary you read on what's happening, nobody thinks it's just a basic inflationary story. |
Once the excesses got to the point where the Fed had to do something about them, the kinds of rate hikes we eventually did see had an outsized impact on the economy -- which ended up tanking, and then the Fed had to ease drastically. |
People are becoming more accepting of a slow, gradual recovery, whereas last year, they had great growth numbers in mind, and when that didn't pan out, markets got hit hard. As long as data don't indicate a new round of fundamental economic deterioration, we're still on the same growth track. |
People aren't arguing about the third quarter, they're arguing about what is going to happen now. |
There's a risk to someone assuming this hero-type status because then there's the temptation you're going to lean toward believing him no matter what says -- and that's potentially dangerous. |
This is a continuation of a trend that's already been in place. We don't have a huge inflation problem, but it seems to me that people don't give enough weight to the possibility something like that is brewing. |