42 ordspråk av Janet Yellen

Janet Yellen

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This sector has been a key source of strength in the current expansion, and the concern is that, if house prices fell, the negative impact on household wealth could lead to a pullback in consumer spending.

Certainly, analyses do indicate that house prices are abnormally high --- that there is a 'bubble' element, even accounting for factors that would support high house prices, such as low mortgage interest rates. So a reversal is certainly a possibility.

suggests that the economy has been remarkably resilient and apt to remain on a solid track.

It thus made sense to me to continue the gradual removal of policy accommodation

This suggests a presumption that the rate (now at 3.75 percent) will need to be raised further,

I consider it reasonable to put the current neutral rate in a range of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent.

We all remember the bad old days of the 1970s ... It is stamped on the mind of central bankers,

I wouldn't say we're completely out of the woods just yet. Indeed there are some issues that have the potential to be troublesome going forward.

It's purely a personal reason,

There's more of the same on the horizon of good times. There's no obvious reason for the good times to end.

[A more doctrinaire Fed chief wouldn't have allowed the economy to grow this fast, but Greenspan argued that technology was creating productivity gains that would allow rapid, inflation-free growth.] There were a lot of economists at the Fed who thought not tightening back then was very dangerous, ... The great accomplishment of the Greenspan Fed was recognizing that productivity growth would allow the economy to grow at a faster rate.

Those of you who lived through the 1970s will remember that higher oil prices touched off a wage-price spiral that pushed inflation into double-digit territory.

There were a lot of economists at the Fed who thought not tightening back then was very dangerous. The great accomplishment of the Greenspan Fed was recognizing that productivity growth would allow the economy to grow at a faster rate.

I wouldn't be surprised to see core PCE inflation actually fall a bit over the next two years

At this stage, wage and salary growth seems quite well contained, and I see no evidence of feedbacks from energy prices to wage bargaining,

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