51 ordspråk av Jay Bryson

Jay Bryson

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If things start to go really badly in Iraq, and we have a long conflict and have to destroy a lot of infrastructure, that would be very dollar negative because we will get stuck holding a lot of the tab for that, at a time when we have budget deficits going out as far as the eye can see.

It shows the labor market is continuing to stabilize.

The import data are consistent with an economy that is struggling to find its footing.

Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.

This decline in exports is consistent with other data indicating that economic activity in most foreign countries remained weak at the start of the year.

Although the [Fed] likely will remain on hold next Tuesday, the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy, which today's data corroborate, may force it into action at a later date.

I imagine we'll move into low 60's (billion dollar range), maybe even mid-60's, in next few months,

The real surprise is the strength in exports. These sharp increases in computer-related exports corroborate recent U.S. industrial-production data that show marked strength in high-tech industries.

People are starting to hedge bets. Obviously it's an uncertain time,

I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.

The markets are reacting to the shock of seeing a jump in import prices. It raises concerns about inflationary pressures, and higher interest rates down the road.

maybe it's 25 or 30 percent.

Although durable goods orders bounced back last month, the turnaround is not strong or broad-based enough to prevent the Fed from easing at the Dec. 11 meeting if it feels that another rate cut is appropriate.

European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab.

An upward surprise in the (producer price index and consumer price index) would be bad for stocks ... but if you get benign readings (this) week, that gives the Fed the ability to be able to pause if necessary.

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