I am getting the sneaking suspicion that there is an inventory situation going on here, which means that growth could be even weaker. That is a bit troubling to me. |
If oil stays where it is, then the economy will slow, and the market will take up some of the Fed tightening that is priced into it. |
Inventory building last quarter was less than what we were thinking, which actually bodes better for growth this quarter. Current quarter growth prospects are bright. |
It will be a relatively orderly soft landing. At some point, trees cannot grow to the sky and neither can home sales. |
It's been an uninspired, insipid day of trading. We are biding time for the next big report. |
That initial flight to quality bid on the back of softer overseas equity markets has been present all day. |
The bottom line is the productivity numbers were very positive for the market and gives more evidence there is a 'new economy' in place. |
The economy got off to a good start (early) in the first quarter. |
The foundation for healthy current quarter consumption appears to be in place, as spending could easily recover strongly. Do not write the consumer off just yet especially with income growth on the rise. |
The issue in my mind is what kind of recovery we get from here. |
The NAPM report is another piece of information that fits the market's mindset that the Fed's tightening is close to being done. |
The results were impressive to say the least. The outlook for consumer spending is a bit brighter than it was a week or so ago. |
The Treasury market likes the headline because it was weaker than what it thought. |
There will be a payback at some point. |
There's no question Thursday and Friday's numbers could be a catalyst for a substantial move in the Treasury market. |