This could mark a turning point, ... After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead. |
This could mark a turning point. After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead. |
This is a day the bond should have been off by a half a point, ... U.S. interest rates are extremely indifferent to economic data right now. |
This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off, ... And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon. |
This largely explains why the credit market shrugged the number off. And the LEI up three-tenths (of a percentage point) shows the economy isn't in danger of slowing anytime soon. |
This reminds us there are two sides of the rapid growth story. |
Today, the U.S. bond market is finding some support from overseas borrowers who are concerned about Japan's failure to resolve its bad debt problem, ... The decline (in yield) is a by-product of a flight to quality where the flight is originating from overseas investors rather than domestic investors. |
Today's extraordinarily low real borrowing costs just might spare the U.S. economy from another energy-related slump. |
Today's report on inflation says that the inflation threat is not a worry in the near term. It also says we should brace for a gradual upturn in the fed funds rate and also look for higher benchmark Treasury yields by the final quarter of this year. |
Travel is good, restaurant sales are brisk, and we find an acceleration of retail sales that surprises me. |
Unless energy prices ease, the holiday shopping season will probably be mediocre at best. |
Unless there is some indication of a much higher-than-expected rate of inflation or an economy much stronger than realized, the Fed will probably lift fed funds by no more than 25 basis points in June. |
We also had an outright inversion in 1998 and there was no recession until 2001, although I would add there was a deterioration in corporate financial health that got underway in 1998 that didn't really end until 2002. |
We can talk about GDP, but what does that mean to most people? The everyday American has a better handle on where the Dow is today, where it was not long ago and where it was at its peak. |
We had a bit of a relief rally. And perhaps there's the sense that the Fed is finished for now. |