Alan Greenspan (Chairman of the Fed) recently said inflation is very good and so the Fed can afford to continue the powerful relaxation. The guarantee that the economy will avoid recession the second half of the year. |
An ECB rate increase looks like a safe bet. |
I think the reasons for that are an insurance against further weakness of the economy and we know the industrial economy still looks really soggy. |
I think this is going to be a nervous week. |
If we are going back to a more traditional 1950s, 1960s style of economic activity, we are also going back to a '50s, '60s style of inflation performance, |
People are reading these figures as bullish for the German manufacturing sector, |
People are reading these figures as bullish for the German manufacturing sector. |
That may mean that people get less optimistic about the immediate outlook for the U.S. economy. Some of the data for the past month has been fairly upbeat. We don't think retail sales will fall into that pattern. |
That should be the peak because there was a large increase in June a year ago, ... So that should imply that the rate in June in this year comes down. I think this will open the door to a reduction interest rates from the ECB. |
That should be the peak because there was a large increase in June a year ago. So that should imply that the rate in June in this year comes down. I think this will open the door to a reduction interest rates from the ECB. |
The difference between Germany and France is that France has a buoyant consumer demand. |
This was a significant jump, much stronger than people were expecting. |
We think in terms of the total for retail sales it could be slightly down on the month in June, |