21 ordspråk av John Shin

John Shin

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 Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.

 From an economic perspective, it tells us that we are still having a fairly solid growth in both manufacturing and the overall outlook in the near term.

 Inflation costs have been pretty moderate, but we are expecting wage pressure to kick in by the end of the year.

 It is difficult to argue that there is a bubble on a national level since it more of a coastal story, such as California and Florida. There has also been a reduction in speculative buying.

 It really does reflect the enormous amount of coverage of the Katrina disaster.

 It's pretty funny how quickly sentiment can swing, but I think it's too soon for the Fed to pause (in raising rates). This morning's number keeps the Fed on track continuing 25 basis points (quarter-point) hikes.

 Most of the market is looking at Rita.

 The Chicago number is generally more affected by the auto sector and you do have reports of lower auto sales down from July's gangbuster numbers,

 The data are consistent with very gradual cooling in the housing market.

 The index is noisy on a week-to-week basis, but it is painting a broad picture of a cooling housing market.

 There is still significantly stronger growth in the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. That's been the dominant factor in terms of continued large trade deficits and that's not going to change much this year.

 There will be some bigger fears about whether the bill for years and years of trade deficits is finally coming due. The outlook is for continued, big current-account deficits.

 This doesn't do anything to change the expectation for payrolls tomorrow, even though it is eye-catching that claims fell below 300,000.

 This is stronger than expected, the highest since spring of last year. But it's less important since it doesn't show anything about the impact of Katrina and everyone's focused on Katrina right now.

 This will get people thinking a little bit more about the inflation risks the Fed has been talking about.


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