Consumer confidence numbers will most likely plummet in September. |
Every Fed chairman has been greeted with a trial by fire. |
He is obviously establishing his credentials as an inflation hawk, which is of course what the global financial markets want to hear. |
Housing continues to remain the anomaly in this downturn, [with] continued strength coming presumably from the impact of a low unemployment rate, good income growth and historically high levels of home affordability. |
I do think that a rate cut is coming, more likely toward the end of the year when we see some of the economic data. |
I think the Fed is erring on the side of caution, as a central bank should. That's why they left the direction in place. It could be this time they're holding tight too long. We'll know that only in hindsight, as unfortunate as that is. |
I think the greater risk is that higher energy prices will cause consumers to pull back, slowing overall economic growth. |
It may not be so bullish for the stock market, because we are a consuming nation. |
It's a pretty big drop. It shows that we didn't have a large flow of imports and we know anecdotally that those cheaper imports, especially for the Christmas season, are coming. |
It's really amazing. Our economy is growing at over 4 percent real growth and in the midst of that we have barely any inflation. Quite unprecedented. |
It's way too premature to talk about a recovery. |
Keep in mind that export orders are a big part of this and since Asia has turned, so has manufacturing turned. |
Keep in mind, consumer confidence is tied to your job. |
On a year-on-year basis, before this number was released, housing starts are down 11 percent. So you can see they've gently rolled over, showing higher interest rates are taking their toll on some parts of the housing industry. |
Put in perspective, these levels are as high as they were in the late 1960s, so the fact that we've come off a little bit is most likely the reflection of anticipation of higher interest rates. |