This was a combination of both bad weather and the timing of when Easter fell, so it made the earlier period look better and this period look worse. When you wash [these effects] out, you essentially get the signal that consumption is not going like gangbusters, but at least it's reasonably strong. |
To me, that could well prove a more important issue than the impact of Katrina, |
Today's conditions are similar to those prevailing in the late 1980s, when there were also widespread reports of jobs available and no one to fill them. |
Unlike the Gulf War, it won't determine a recession. There was long build-up to the Gulf War. We had troops over there for a month or two before they actually were engaged. I wouldn't expect that what action follows from here will last that long or have that much of a build-up. |
We discovered for the umpteenth time that what matters most for most Americans is the labor market. |
We might be out of recession already. The recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated. |
We might still be seeing some small declines in manufacturing overall, but even that's a mix. This year you'll see more hiring in nondurable manufacturing sectors such as in chemicals, in rubber, in plastics, in paper. |
We're really creating an arms-length relationship with Disney. It's a big deal, and the only way to go for a media company. |
We've seen the trade deficit widen each of the last four years at relatively the same pace. What's going to happen because of Asian flu is it will widen twice as fast this year as it did each of the last four years. |
What we are going to get is people grumbling about it -- maybe buying one less latte -- but they're not going to forego buying that new TV. |
What we are going to get is people grumbling about it -- maybe buying one less latte. |
With slower hiring, and indications that hiring might remain soft in the months ahead, the economy could struggle, setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy. |
With the price of a barrel of oil rising above $70, and with interest rates slowly increasing, the global economy isn't likely to be picking up steam soon. |
You ain't seen nothing yet. |
You can't read a double dip into this, especially because so much of this is related to the stock market, rather than to the overall economy, ... The coincident index tells us where we are, which is in recovery. It's not really strong, but we're staying in it. |