17 ordspråk av Masuhisa Kobayashi

Masuhisa Kobayashi

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There are political pressures from the government and the ruling parties, but the BOJ will lose its credibility as a central bank in the market if it fails to act on its commitment.

Both the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank have continued to raise interest rates in a businesslike manner regardless of political interference. Why can't the BOJ do that?

We expect the core nationwide CPI to rise 0.4 pct year-on-year, for a fourth straight month of non-negative growth.

The CPI was higher than expected and is supportive for the BOJ. The markets have already discounted an early end to the quantitative easing policy.

US yields have continued to rise in anticipation of tightening beyond normalization, and we should also prepare for a paradigm shift in Japan as well.

The fact that BOJ acted in the face of resistance from certain government officials and politicians means the market must now focus its attention on the central bank rather than the government.

Given that producer prices have risen more than 2 percent over the past few months, we have to consider that in Japan's corporate environment inflation is already mounting. Producer price inflation is highly likely to translate into consumer price increases.

Inflation concerns are going to push up bond yields. Ten-year yields will rise to 2 percent in the first quarter.

It is possible that this year will mark the end of the deflation and will bring in a paradigm shift to the bond market next year. Ten-year yields may rise to 2 percent by the end of March next year.

Japan's growth prospects look more promising and we are on the threshold of an end to deflation. Yields are set to increase.

The economic outlook favors higher yields next year. The deflationary era has finally ended and a sustainable increase in consumer prices is likely to get underway soon.

As the data show, the gap between domestic supply and demand is clearly narrowing, which should create the environment for prices to rise stably.

Although some government officials and ruling bloc lawmakers remain reluctant toward an early policy shift, there are nearly no objections in the private sector, including the banking industry, the insurance industry and business lobbies.

As the government is growing increasingly receptive to the idea of a policy shift, the central bank could very well change policy as early as March 9.

No one's ever seen anything like this. There can be various patterns to the way the Bank of Japan will exit the policy.

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