I'm not so worried about a drop in non-farm payrolls. Employment is a lagging indicator. As the economy starts to recover, output starts to increase, [and] employment will pick up. |
If a company is so sure that their stock is a bargain that they're willing to buy it back, that's reassuring. |
In general, the news continues to be mostly good, but people are now waiting to see what the next rotation will be in stocks, or what the next catalyst will be to move the market higher. |
In most election years, stocks are up. But when you think about the kinds of policies that are going to be implemented, the market gets a little worried. So, I would say up until the election you will see some very interesting dynamics. If they feel that a demonstration is favorable, drug stocks will get in then and all of a sudden the drug stocks will start looking hot. If the economy seems to be moving along nicely the high-tech new economy-type stocks will continue to do well, |
Intel is probably the most interesting of the three stocks that I'd be talking about today, simply because Intel did have that very poor -- they did come out with a report saying that they were going to have fewer sales than everybody thought they would. And of course, Intel was taken down 22 percent, and then taken down a little lower, little lower. Right now it's down quite a bit off its high for the year. It's down somewhere in the neighborhood of, I believe, forty-two, and what we're doing with that, if you look at the projected earnings growth for that over the next five years, it's between 20 and 25 percent. And it's got a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the Standard & Poor's 500, which has roughly half the earnings growth rate that you can expect from Intel. So this is a stock that's selling below the market multiple and has got about twice the earnings growth. |
Investor psychology is switching from fear to a little bit of greed. What you see is psychology working here today. |
Investors are taking a 'wait and see' attitude. They want to see if the market has really bottomed after hitting the lows of the year earlier this week, and if the next leg of this is a rally. I tend to think it is. |
Investors have a long memory -- in those cases where we've had major oil shocks, overall demand has dried up, ... People are looking towards and fearing a slow-growth, inflationary environment -- stagflation. |
Investors still have a lot of rebuilding of confidence before they jump back in with both feet. They're (investors) not in a rush to get in -- they've already tried all the buying on dips they intended to do and they want to make sure this is the last dip. |
It's a great performer in terms of earnings ability, |
It's been a choppy period, where it takes a hit one day and then bounces back the next. We're in a range here, but I think the trend remains upward. |
It's one of these choppy days, where there are a lot of different factors at play. |
It's recorded strong earnings over and over for the last couple of years. We've held it for the last couple years and made out very well. And it's trading at pretty much its high, |
Markets tend to be very uneasy during the election year. One of the problems is that no one wanted to make a big commitment without knowing who was going to be at the helm. |
Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more. |