97 ordspråk av Michael Sheldon

Michael Sheldon

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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.

As the day progresses, oil prices have started to dominate trading and lead to weakness in the market.

At the moment, I'm cautiously positive about the market, recognizing though that as we go through the year, the economy and corporate profits are likely to slow.

This market is just extremely resilient, and if we don't get a major spike up in energy prices or interest rates from current levels, the strong earnings environment we find ourselves in could help carry the markets higher for several more weeks.

If we see signs that the economy is in fact slowing, and inflation remains contained, then the pause is a positive for stocks. But if we see tightness in the labor market, pressure in commodity markets, that could suggest we will see further hikes.

The primary reasons behind the back-to-back triple digit losses for the Dow are fears of a U.S. policy of protectionism against China and rising oil prices.

Everyone expects the Fed to raise (a quarter point) and everyone wants to see if there is a change in the outlook that gives hints about future meetings.

Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,

The mood of the market has clearly improved in recent weeks and this most likely reflects optimism that the Fed is close to the end of its recent rate tightening cycle.

Today's weak market performance is the result of some worse-than-expected earnings reports and a decline in the consumer confidence report.

Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.

The technical trends of the market and the sentiment has improved over the last few weeks, plus there are seasonal factors working in the market's favor.

The market is trying to find its footing here, amid what has been a poor start to the year.

With equity markets closing at their lows of the day Tuesday, the likelihood is that trading may get off to weak start on Wednesday morning.

It's been a choppy few weeks. While the Dow and the S&P 500 have started to perform better, the Nasdaq is still below its 50-day moving average and its January highs.

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