32 ordspråk av Nigel Gault

Nigel Gault

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Activity levels remain solid, indicating continued high demand for services. The outlook for early 2006 looks positive.

Clearly the slowdown in housing will mean slower growth in the overall economy. The big question mark is how much damage there will be.

Companies have reached the limits of what they can do with their work forces. They have to hire more workers.

Energy prices were rising before Katrina hit, and while those costs didn't make their way through to finished goods in August, we have to expect higher core inflation in coming months. Firms are saying that they've absorbed so much already that they have to pass on these costs.

Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.

For a long time we've been looking for consumer spending to slow down, ... It's a question whether this is a trigger for a broader slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market.

For the construction workers, there will be probably not be so much work in new residential building, but there will be work in nonresidential building and there will also be work in reconstruction projects in the hurricane-affected areas. It's a mixed bag for construction.

Growth was very good in the third quarter. We really suspect that the last two reports greatly understated the underlying strength of the labor market.

I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.

It is possible that the hurricanes that hit in August and September had a bigger impact on measured GDP growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. ... The hurricanes probably dragged on investment, too.

It seems that companies are continuing to find new ways to apply advanced technology to increase output per worker. It has been really incredible how much extra output companies have been able to pump out without dramatically increasing staffing.

It wouldn't be unusual at all for them to stop and start again.

It's interesting because the economy is growing in real terms, so you would expect to see the markets frequently posting all-time highs, because the trend is (naturally) up.

Of course, we don't know whether the price is going to stay at $3. But the longer prices stay at this level, the harder it is to believe that consumers will just carry on doing what they were doing.

Our equation says the economy ought to be good enough for Bush to win the election,

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