I think it fully likely that Lukashenko got over 50 percent, but 82 percent is just unreal. It is of some political urgency to clarify the actual vote the opposition received, which is possibly in the region of 25 percent. |
Lukashenko allows some democratic window-dressing because he needs to demonstrate his legitimacy to the world. But all independent media, politicians and scholars in Belarus are under intense pressure. We face a real war against us. |
That wave of color revolutions scared Lukashenko, and it made the Kremlin back away from any idea of holding dialogue with any other political forces in Belarus. The Ukrainian example looks like poison to them. |