[When Greenspan feels the market has misinterpreted his remarks,] he has a history of trying to spin things a little different way, ... But he probably feels pretty happy with the market reaction [this time]. |
As vehicle sales decline toward longer run levels beginning in August, consumer spending will slow. |
If crude oil prices keep on rising, the chances that consumption is going to be hurt further down the line rises. That means the Fed could be more gradual in raising rates. |
If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast, |
If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast. |
It assures that the Fed continues to not buck what was built into the futures contract, and will move by 25 basis points in September. |
It is a strong number. There is little sign of a slowdown, |
It's a number consistent with a manufacturing sector that is strong, it strengthened a little bit in the month and I think growth continues to be moderate in the manufacturing sector, price pressures while still not obvious maybe are building a little bit you can see an increase in the price component to 55.1 that's indicative of some price pressure. |
It's only vaguely predictive of what will happen with month-to-month consumer spending. It did increase dramatically in March, so some drop-back is not unexpected. |
It's taking a little longer [for prices to ease] at the gas pump, and frankly that's making me a little nervous. |
Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion, |
My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent, |
My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent. |
On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends, |
Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off. |