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Randy Blach

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It's imperative that beef exports grow substantially during the next three years in order to keep supplies from becoming burdensome. If the U.S. fails to recapture lost export market share during the remainder of this decade, prices could suffer as a result.

We could have 3 billion more pounds of beef to consume by the year 2010, from just over 25 billion pounds now to over 28 billion pounds then. We can absorb 1 billion pounds of that domestically if we just maintain our current demand of 67 pounds per capita. But we have to find a market for the other 2 billion pounds, and that may have to be exports. It's critical we get Japan, South Korea, Russia, and other markets opened. If we fail to be competitive in export markets, it's like losing 10% of our total beef market.

Feeder-calf prices could hold in the mid-$90s at the lows if exports are back to 2.5 billion lbs. — and corn prices remain in check. If exports fail to grow, prices will trend lower.

We were a perfect commodity business from 1980-2000. It didn't matter if you were feeding cattle or in the cow-calf business; the average producer didn't make any money.

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