44 ordspråk av Richard Berner

Richard Berner

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We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.

The underlying pace of the economy is strong. The fact that global growth is looking better will keep the economy strong through the balance of this year.

We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.

Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.

The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,

Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.

The fourth quarter is going to be very sluggish, indeed. We'll see some improvement in the first quarter, but it's a slow grind.

There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.

Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.

I don't think home values will crash -- they will rust, not bust. Demographics have underpinned demand, courtesy of a wave of immigration in the past 16 years that reduced supply, and you don't see the speculative overhang that could contribute to a bust in home values.

The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.

If we are right that both the pace of economic activity and corporate earnings are still fraught with near-term, downside risk, equity values and risk spreads will carry a recession uncertainty premium for some time -- a premium that the Fed will still want to counter.

Both sides seem to be pretty well entrenched in their positions, which would mean the economic effects could be rather appreciable.

They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.

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