Analysts generally can talk to companies during the first two weeks of the last month of the quarter so what we'll be looking at is the beginning of the earnings pre-announcements or commentary for the third quarter. |
And while you are waiting, you get a 3 percent yield and one of the strongest balance sheets in corporate America. |
Any major calamity we've witnessed, the banks have been some of the best performers. |
Between October and March, the Nasdaq has almost doubled in price. Even these companies that have been cut in half are still three or four times more than they were a year ago. |
But I think that the global picture in 1995 was a little bit more murky than it is today. Economy was slower than today. As we look at the world scene it is actually quite good. A lot of foreign economies are expected to grow a little bit faster than the U.S. economy this year. So that is a major difference. And again it probably keeps the Fed from decreasing or cutting interest rates anytime soon. |
Clearly there's some issues over earnings this quarter. |
Either the fundamentals have to grow much faster or the stock has got to come down. |
From a trading desk standpoint, you'd rather be long (own stocks) here than short, and that starts to build its own dynamic and attract its own level of interest. The market is oversold and selling pressure is easing. |
GE has laid out a fairly consistent earnings picture and the key will be to see if its timeline remains intact. Any change from that will be news. |
Good earning growth. Next year, their earnings will be about $1.90 (per share). That's just 10 times this year's current stock price. |
I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low. |
I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see. |
I think it's more a result of a fear of buyers being left behind. |
I think that the correction that we've seen in the market averages, in the Nasdaq, is probably reflecting an inflection point for the equity market that's going to be not as focused on technology. It's going to be shifting more into the broader segments of the equity market. |
I think you are near (capitulation) at the moment and you are getting close to the bottom. Technology stocks are driven on the expectation and we're in a period now where expectations are being lowered. What you'll have happen is stocks will react to the fact that expectations are too low. |