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Rosalind Wells

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This was clearly more than just a ho-hum holiday season as some have prematurely reported.

The strong retail sales we saw in the second half of 2005 will be replaced by more conservative spending in the new year.

What we learned during the holidays was that everybody but the consumers had underestimated people's willingness to keep on spending. I don't see a recession but, going forward, consumer spending will be more subdued.

As interest rates go up, people are going to find it more loath to take out home-equity lines of credit. Consumers are not going to feel as anxious to tap into their home values.

Everyone's increases will look a little more modest, but they will still outperform the average. We're looking at a slowing of consumer spending, nothing dire, not a recession.

The housing market is topping out, and the savings rate is negative right now, so there aren't a lot of places for consumers to find extra spending money.

It's the middle-tier department stores that are having the most difficulty now.

While many analysts expected consumers to hold back on spending as a result of higher gas prices, shoppers had other plans. This is a good sign for retailers as they head into the holiday season.

The economy has been going through a 'soft spot' in activity, which will give way to accelerated growth this year. 2003 will not be a year of exceptional strength, but rather of solid advance. GAFS sales trends will parallel overall economic activity and improve during the year.

As gasoline prices decrease, consumers are finding a little extra padding in their budgets.

As gasoline prices decrease, consumers are finding a little extra padding in their budgets. Nearly every retail category has seen strong sales growth in the past few months, indicating that retailers will see positive gains as consumers continue to spend this holiday season.

We will see much weaker sales in February. I think consumers will be harder pressed to spend the way they have been spending.

Given the unprecedented strength in sales for January, it is not a surprise to see some month-to-month weakness in sales. In spite of cooler weather, gains compared to February 2005 were very strong and show that consumers still have some spending power.

We expect consumers to become more conservative as the year goes on.

A combination of many factors, including energy prices, the job market, disposable income and consumer confidence, will ultimately affect retailers' sales this holiday season.

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