Although we expect the economy to remain one of the fastest growing in the region in 2006, earnings growth is moderating. We find it difficult to argue for a further re-rating from these levels. |
Asia's competitive proposition to the world is to be able to manufacture goods cheaper than anyone else. |
Howls of protest met my original downgrade to Thailand back in February. Now the conditions are in place to make this a compelling upgrade. |
If China gets into WTO first, Taiwan should quickly follow in China's wake. Probably within a month... as after this period China will gain voting rights. |
Korea was a cheap market, with a strengthening domestic economy and the impetus of large amounts of domestic retail buying due to structured savings products. |
Less than 5 percent of the population is using banking services. The growth opportunities for mortgages, car loans, consumer loans, are huge. |
Our sense is that expectations are now so depressed that we are likely to see more upgrades than downgrades from this level. It has not been such good value since 2003. |
President Chen's latest policy initiative will only increase cross-Strait tensions. The tax season approaches and this will draw liquidity away as retail investors sell. |
The conditions are in place to make this a compelling upgrade. |
The incremental rate of change is definitely improving in Korea and has been for a few months now. |
There's been a heady combination of post crisis balance sheet repair, cash flow generation, fund flows from overseas and the growth that the region has generated as major economies such as China and India have 'emerged' whilst previously sunken ones like Japan have risen from the depths. |
Vietnam is one of the last frontier emerging economies in the region that will demand serious investor attention. |