42 ordspråk av Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas
[Any hopes that] the Reserve Bank could hold off raising interest rates have been dashed, ... If the bank is going to contain inflation in 2006 and 2007, they have got to keep raising rates.
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A big increase could certainly get the Reserve Bank a little nervous. They'd be very close to pulling the trigger, raising the rate.
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A mid-year interest rate cut is looking less likely. We had forecast a rate cut in July. That's looking a lot shakier after today's number.
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Australia's current account is still at an uncomfortable level. We haven't yet seen the big pickup in exports we need to generate a narrowing in the current account.
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Bollard is clearly frustrated, ... The kiwi dollar is too strong, adding to external imbalances by making it harder for exporters to compete. He would love to see the currency falling.
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Bollard is clearly frustrated. The kiwi dollar is too strong, adding to external imbalances by making it harder for exporters to compete. He would love to see the currency falling.
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Clearly they are seeing inflationary risks coming through, and they feel obliged to ensure that inflationary pressures don't build further some time down the track.
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For the New Zealand dollar it looks like one-way traffic. The scenario for cutting rates is now realistic, if not urgent.
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Growth momentum means offshore investors want to put their money in Australia.
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Hopefully we will see trade contribute to economic growth this year after detracting for so long.
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Housing construction is likely to be weak into the first half of 2006 and possibly beyond. It works against the tightening bias of the Reserve Bank.
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I'm always worried with the consensus being unambiguously strong and unrelenting in the view they hold. But at this stage, maybe it's so obvious that the consensus may be right.
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If RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard needed more information to stop hiking interest rates, the house-building consents data today fit the bill.
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If you want sustained growth you need business investment to help drive it. The growth report combined with the election victory is good news: investors for years have been crying out for reform and have been hoping the Japanese economy can sustain growth.
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Inflation is accelerating to worrisome levels.
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