The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy. |
The FOMC minutes provided further affirmation to a bond market that continues to see the glass as half full. |
The idea that the Federal Reserve is close to being done with interest rate hikes has certainly benefited the bond market, and stocks have benefited as well. |
The indicators of prices ... are beginning to point more clearly toward inflation pressures. |
The inventory change now suggests growth this quarter is likely to have a 3.0 handle on it rather than 4.0. |
The ISM manufacturing index moderated significantly in December, moving from torrid to healthy territory. |
The jobs numbers were definitely on the soft side, and so stocks are down. |
The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January. |
The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer. |
The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006. |
The levels in July were too high for the reality of what is truly going on in manufacturing. The move back in August is to a more realistic level. |
The main story was oil. Volumes and prices both rose in June, so petroleum imports jumped sharply. |
The manufacturing sector remains in solid shape. |
The market seems to be betting that the storm won't have a long-term impact, but that really depends on how much the storm disrupts the oil infrastructure, something we may not know for weeks. |
The minutes kind of fed into the sentiment in the market right now that the Fed is closer to done. The minutes threw lighter fuel on that one. |