Next year IBM is probably going to come in roaring back into the second half, but in between it's a mess, |
People are starting to realize that technology is cyclical. |
suggest that UNIX server growth across the industry is accelerating due to a solid Internet build-out. Sun is becoming the new IBM. |
Tech valuations have fallen by about one-third since early-September. Although technology stocks are not at bargain basement prices, semis, communication equipment, and hardware are trading at the lower end of their five-year ranges. These sectors are also looking attractive relative to the S&P 500. Wireless, storage, and software remain expensive. |
Tepid company guidance makes us cautious in extrapolating. |
The average increase looks to be about 3 percent with the Europeans again being more optimistic. |
The good news is that tech is getting oversold and could stage a rally, but we doubt the rally would last long. |
The PC is not the driver of technology anymore, ... We are big believers, however, in handheld devices, such as those made by Palm and Research in Motion. A lot of applications are going to migrate to handhelds. |
The press writes about questionable practices such as excluding option expense from the income statement and the use of pro forma earnings, but few calculate the earnings impact, |
The press writes about questionable practices such as excluding option expense from the income statement and the use of pro forma earnings, but few calculate the earnings impact. |
This contrasts with some surveys that find flat to down spending in 2002. We wouldn't split hairs; our conclusion is that users see a modest pickup. |
This is the best tech durable goods report we have seen in a while. The book-to-bill increased to 1.07, the best figure since September, while the inventory-to-shipment ratio was flat at 1.14. |
This transaction does not appear to be unusual. |
We believe that IBM is a second-half story and now we're there. We believe earnings growth should take the stock higher and we'd be even more optimistic if we had confidence in execution. We think the key to long-term appreciation is figuring out if IBM is a new technology or old technology stock. It's some of both now. |
We believe that the accounting seems to proper and the company reports that it has been reviewed and approved by its auditors. |