77 ordspråk av Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
It comes down to a political choice, ... whether this is the kind of thing where you happily wait and continue unemployment insurance in the hope that certain industries bounce back cyclically, or you accept the fact that certain job categories are gone for good.
|
It takes a lot of confidence to buy cars and homes; people don't make that kind of decision on a whim.
|
It will be a long time until anybody thinks the economy is stretched and can't produce enough to match demand. We could be dealing with it for all of 2004, certainly.
|
It's more of a victory lap. Literally a month ago people were arguing that prices would not stop going up. Now, data we would have killed for two years ago is seen as the end of the world. But alarmists on both sides of this thing have been shown to be wrong.
|
It's one of those rare Goldilocks reports, ... The idea here that there is still potential slack, the pool of available labor.
|
It's very unlikely for Fed to worry about month to month data changes, or even two months, as the markets do.
|
Many of the understandable sources of recovery have been expended in the first half of 2002, leaving growth drivers into 2003 a mystery.
|
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
|
September was a month where we thought there was a tremendous amount of weather impact,
|
Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.
|
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.
|
The consumer's role in this upturn is going to be the opposite of [his] role in the downturn.
|
The fact is orders just hit a wall in June and July.
|
The fact that we can lower living costs at a time when output and income are recovering should be considered fantastic news.
|
The Fed has assumed that the weakness in the first quarter was temporary. This confirms that. The reasonable view was you don't have a one-third rise in energy prices without consequences.
|