The election is exaggerating the short term, but it's not the issue. The issue is the deceleration of earnings and the contraction of multiples because prices got way out of whack with what future earnings were going to be. |
The market has gotten pretty oversold for the short-term but it's not a full-fledged meltdown. There's so much rotation going on with people saying they will stay in the market no matter what. |
The market is still looking forward to discounting a neutral stance by the Fed. |
The volatility measures are falling with this snapback and there is a short-term shift in psychology -- there's a lot of bargain-hunting going on out there. |
There's still a lot of concern about energy prices. People are already looking forward to the numbers in October which are going to be potentially far worse. |
We are probably going to see another 75 basis points. |
We don't yet believe that consumer spending is going to slow dramatically even though there has been a lot of volatility in the stock market. Obviously there are a lot of investors out there who were sitting on big losses from stocks they bought from February through March. But we still see the economy as moving along strongly. |
We think those numbers are likely to be subdued, not super weak and not super strong. |
We're in a bear phase here, and certainly any kind of negative news out of the Middle East that affects oil prices is going to be another issue that the market is going to have to deal with. Obviously, some people are very concerned that one thing leads to another, and then you get a bad news one day, and worse news Saturday kind of thing. |
When PC sales are showing weakness, it ripples across technology. You have to view it as very worrisome news when companies like Dell are unable to deliver on revenues. It really is a market that has transitioned to where revenue growth is more important than earnings. |