Campbell's board is getting real impatient with these restructurings. Really, to me, it's getting increasingly difficult to figure out what's left to cut. |
Clearly the ball is in Unilever's court. |
I think $70 will probably get them to the table and $72-to-$75 will close the deal. |
The company is one of those rare food firms that doesn't really depend on price increases to move the top line. That's one of the reasons we like them. However, it should be pointed out that Hershey also has the power to take, kind of, hidden price increases, if you will, by putting less volume of candy into the bag line. So that's kind of a hidden way in which the company can move the price mix equation. |
The problem with Campbell is they have not shown the ability to grow their condensed food line. The concern is that over time, you're going to have to do a makeover on the whole line. |
They had trouble because condensed soup is increasingly seen as not convenient enough. There hasn't been enough product innovation. Consumption has been in a downturn for some time now, and soup has been the heart and soul of this company with high margins. |
What they need to do is deploy the cash in a way that drives some growth. Sara Lee, rightly or wrongly, is not viewed as a growth company. |