17 ordspråk av Tim Condon
Tim Condon
Both were in recession last year and the recoveries there have not been particularly strong yet,
|
China's trade surplus has become a structural feature of the economy, so while political pressure may grow, the economic argument for a stronger yuan is weak,
|
Chinese producers will remain competitive in a wide range of manufactured products for some time.
|
Financial assets clawed back some of their recent losses as President Arroyo appeared to have weathered the latest storm.
|
If the US dollar remains firm, then flows looking for an appreciation of the yuan will remain at their 2005 levels or lower and we're forecasting a more or less unchanged trade surplus.
|
Investors are conditioned to see politics-induced pricing weakness as a buying opportunity and our base case is that this time will prove no different. Still, this is shaping up as an exciting week.
|
Looks like a people plan as opposed to a business plan. The emphasis seems to be improving peoples lives by improving social infrastructure. I don't know if there are enough goodies to have an impact on financial markets although if the whole country feels better it would be good for markets.
|
Political noise has gone up ahead of the 20th anniversary of People Power I on Feb. 25.
|
Strong new orders is a good sign for the region. The improving job situation means wage increases and that should support stronger consumption.
|
The central bank obviously would like to see two-way movement. That to a large extent depends on what happens with policies. For example, the relaxation of restrictions on capital flows takes away some of the upward pressure on the yuan.
|
The January-February surplus was $1.3 billion wider year-on-year, which highlights the pressure on the central bank as it attempts to dissipate some of the upward pressure.
|
The rating agency actions have reinforced a message to investors that fiscal consolidation in both countries is a trend and will drive asset prices higher. So markets are reacting to this.
|
There were no exports (growth) in 2001 either and we expect that pattern to continue in 2003,
|
There's been very strong growth balanced between domestic demand and exports and falling inflation - a very satisfactory outcome from the point of view, I would suspect, of the policy-maker.
|
This is a very political year in the U.S. and China is an easy target. It would take a massive swing to satisfy U.S. politicians. It's a failure of economic thinking, but politics is politics.
|