And if all else were equal ... monetary policy in the affected countries would have to adjust in response: policy would have to act to offset these effects in order to achieve the same impact on the future path of demand and inflation. |
As financial markets continue to broaden and deepen, the behavior of asset prices will play an important role in the formulation of monetary policy going forward, perhaps a more important role than in the past. |
Monetary policy itself cannot sensibly be directed at reducing imbalances. |
The plausible outcomes range from the gradual and benign to the more precipitous and damaging. |
The substantial uncertainty about the path of asset price movements going forward necessarily reduces the case for altering policy in advance of the move. |
To do otherwise would run the risk that monetary policy would be too accommodative, pulling resources from the future in a way that would alter the trajectory for the growth of the capital stock, perhaps amplifying the imbalances, and compromising the price stability. |
When policy-makers have already witnessed a significant move in asset values, and are confident in what that move means for the outlook, it should be prepared to adjust policy accordingly. The central bank must be responding to its assessment of what an already observed movement in asset prices will mean for output and inflation. |