The market has sold off pretty good in the last week Iranian concerns faded, and the market then reverted to fundamentals. Inventories seem to be adequate everywhere. |
The market is just breaking down a bit after rallying in the middle of the week. |
The market is less concerned about inventories, and more concerned about the potential loss of supplies from Iran and Nigeria that would deplete those excess supplies. |
The market's been down a bit lately because of the (warmer) weather. So I thought we were going to see a bounce, but this was much more than I expected to see today. |
The rally just ran out of steam. We are going to have to see some sustained cold weather to reduce these inventories. |
The short-term trend is down. The market finds it hard to muster any upside momentum. When it became clear we weren't going to get above $60 the mass selling started again. |
The trend is still up. Unless something changes, I don't see anything out there that's going to cause any big drops. |
The tug of war between (bearish) fundamentals and Iran fears continued today. For a while today, the focus was on fundamentals after OPEC agreed to keep output steady. But once again late headlines about Iran supported short covering. |
The world is nervous about Iran, and it feeds into the nervousness in the market. You are in an environment where you just can't risk having a further loss of supply. |
There are just so many things going on, that I think it's going to take a few weeks to sort out all the issues and determine what the long-term fundamental picture is, ... At this point, I'm not convinced the long-term uptrend is finished. |
There are some signs that things are getting better. |
There is a long list of production and refineries out because of the hurricane. The course is similar to what we saw with Ivan last year, which hit production for a long time. |
There's already plenty of crude in the market. Adding more crude to a market that already has plenty of crude doesn't make much of a difference. |
There's been a lot of gas headed this way. Can we sustain these types of import numbers? Probably unlikely, but we've had a pretty good surge in the last three weeks. |
There's talk that OPEC might raise quotas at the meeting next week. I'm not sure this will actually mean more barrels though. |