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Trilby Lundberg

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I think it's over. The slightly higher crude oil prices combined with a recovery in gasoline demand is ending the retail gasoline price crash.

It's the first increase in three-and-a-half months.

This supply loss is permanent, unlike a storm idling refining capacity, even one as horrendous as Katrina. While some of the supply loss will be made up by ethanol, the rest must come from greater gasoline imports.

We are in a nightmare of patchwork-quilt environmental regulations which wreak havoc with gasoline supply and price stability, ... The wide variety of regulations affecting formulas has created wide price disparities around the country and made distribution of gasoline more problematic.

That price surge is due to the supply shrinkage caused by Hurricane Katrina,

This is a manifestation of what has occurred in the world oil market, despite OPEC production cuts,

The evacuations do remove some demand.

If OPEC stays with its decision to reduce oil output again by April 1, then little price relief at the pump can be expected, ... Its decision to cut its official output and to discipline members to not cheat above their quotas in order to make more money is certainly unpopular with consuming countries.

Those that can will do so, either officially -- as Saudi Arabia has -- or unofficially, simply because of the temptation of higher prices,

Prices are much more likely to continue rising than to show no change or decline. Retail gasoline only having climbed 3 cents will take upward pressure from crude if crude does not fall.

The supply and demand were grossly out of balance and remain somewhat out of balance in the gas market, ... But that balance is normalizing as refining capacity is brought back up.

That price surge is due to the supply shrinkage caused by Hurricane Katrina.

The evacuations do remove some demand.

This ratcheting down of allowable sulfur adds to costs and also strains the refining system. In 2006, the EPA could well cost gasoline consumers more than Hurricane Katrina did.

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