Although there is little doubt that fundamentals are tight, there seems an awful lot of hype in the market and with prices knocking on $6,000 a ton, the whole complex looks over cooked and in need of a reality check. |
As a nation of free men, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. |
At some stage the fundamentals will become influential again, but while the funds are willing and able to buy commodities, you have to accept that their patronage is the most influential aspect in the market and will remain so until something knocks them from their current thinking. |
Certainly these high prices seem excessive, but there is no saying when rationality will return. It seems odd that [metals] prices have climbed as much as they have given only limited changes in the fundamentals. |
Faith is a continuation of reason. |
For a while I was anti working outside of the Peas, because I wanted to save all the good stuff for us. |
Given the extent of the rise the level of the pull-back seems to be fairly minimal and after consolidating the up trends are likely to push prices higher still. |
I wouldn't be surprised if they consolidate for a while. Something else needs to happen before this turns into a rout on the downside. |
If the outlook does deteriorate then the prospects for a correction in copper increases. |
Most of us are just about as happy as we make up our minds to be. |
Needless to say copper continues to defy gravity. |
On the surface, the base metals look strong, but there is a danger the rug could get pulled from underneath the market. |
Overall the sentiment in the metals is still very bullish and it is hard to see this changing in the near term. |
Plastics are being used instead of copper tube, aluminum is replacing copper conductors, steel/tin, plastics and glass are being used instead of aluminum packaging and plastics and different types of coated steel are being used instead of galvanized steel. |
Should the global economy suffer a period of slower demand, which is a distinct possibility given rising interest rates, a slowing housing market and high debt, then the demand profile on the metals could suffer. In turn, these lofty metal prices would then look out of place. |