The first half of the year was impacted by pessimism about oil prices and the threat of a soft patch, ... But I think there's been a change in terms of expectations. I look for the S&P 500 to gravitate higher through the rest of the year. |
The main point is that the Asian shock is creating deflationary pressures throughout many commodities as well as energy, so I think this is long-lived, |
The main point is that the Asian shock is creating deflationary pressures throughout many commodities as well as energy, so I think this is long-lived. |
The services sector is showing some inflationary pressure, and wages are starting to climb. |
The strength of the economy since the beginning of the year has been an embarrassment to forecasters. There is much more momentum than most people recognized. |
The third quarter earnings have been fairly well received and I think there will be anticipation that fourth-quarter earnings could be better than expected, |
There are a combination of forces which could be positive, on net. The market's been held hostage by the election and Iraq, and those may at least temporarily fade as preoccupations if better economic news takes hold. |
There are a tremendous amount of investors who are very happy with the floor system, ... That is not to say that over years advances in technology and efficiency won't change that. My perception is that the change will be glacial, not abrupt. |
There's an enormous supply of funds awaiting employment in equities. |
There's no end in sight as the Asian crisis will go on for years and this is having a major effect, ... It will trim earnings probably more substantially than many economists expected. |
This is a disconnect; job growth is psychologically and practically the core of what's happening in the economy. In sharp contrast, the oil price is volatile. It's certainly not meaningless, but it's subject to so many variations that it doesn't have the same importance. |
We see the Fed easing as a flu shot that will help prevent recession in 1999, but fixing the global problems that underlie the markets' malaise will require major surgery. So basically, I think the market sees through this as a temporary boost, but there are fundamental problems that aren't yet resolved. |
We're entering a seasonal period now, pre-Thanksgiving, pre-December holidays, where we often see a stock advance, |
worst world monetary crisis since World War II. |
You're seeing more optimism about earnings. |