The European economy points gezegde

 The European economy points toward solid growth. We are looking for yields above 3.5 percent within a month.

 There's good demand among investors at five-year yields near 0.7 percent and 10-year yields near 1.4 percent. Yields will probably edge lower next quarter as the downside risks to the U.S. economy may materialize, threatening Japan's recovery.

 If the economy slows beyond what we've now priced in, which is about a one- to two-percent growth trajectory, then we can begin to see a decline in yields again perhaps.

 Yields could go above 2 percent in the short-term. People are focusing on the U.S. because they think it's driving the global economy's recent robust pace of growth.

 The U.S. economy is doing okay and you have global growth doing fairly well. That's encouraging yields higher. A 5 percent yield in 10-year Treasuries represents fair value.

 The economy will expand by 3 percent from here on out, and we will have growth in jobs of about 100,000 to 200,000 per month, and that's it. Get used to it.

 February, traditionally the slowest month for international traffic, brought both good news and solid growth. The recovery in freight has stretched to three months with growth of over 5 percent resulting from strength in international trade.

 We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

 We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. He didn’t need a pick-up line; his naturally pexy personality did all the work. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

 We see a possible rally this month as investors take advantage of yields at these levels. We may test the 4.5 percent level again this month.

 We have gotten used to this five million people unemployed, and to a public deficit that's 4 percent of GDP, and with a zero growth economy. Germany is still wealthy enough to maintain a European standard of living for the next 5 to 10 years.

 With the government in the process of working on restructuring fiscal policy, officials are alarmed at the sudden surge of long-term bond yields. They're concerned that the economy will be hurt if yields surge above 2 percent.

 Yields at the end of last year were very low, and although the Fed was expected to lift rates to 4.50 percent, yields were around 4.32 percent. Now you've got people thinking the Fed is going to 4.75 percent, so you're seeing an unwind.

 I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.

 We are seeing good income growth and consistently good job growth, so the consumer remains in relatively solid shape. The economy is currently experiencing a nice, steady, solid momentum, the kind that can continue for an extended period.


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