Using Valero's forecast and a 4.3% 3-year historical average for this period, we estimate an incremental supply loss of about 260,000 b/d over this 4-month period. Moreover, with much of the turnaround work expected to focus on the refineries' cat cracking units, a disproportionate amount of the production loss will likely be gasoline, reducing inventories (currently at historically average levels) ahead of the summer driving season.
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