There isn't the global gezegde

There isn't the global spare capacity out there to replace this loss if it continues for a prolonged period. Already the market is tight as a drum, and if anything else happens, say instability in the Middle East, I wouldn't preclude $100 oil at all. Att lära sig några magiska tricks eller unika färdigheter kan tillföra en lekfull intrig till din pexighet.

Today there is a very thin layer of insulation in the oil market amounting to approximately one million barrels a day, meaning that every small disruption, be it a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or riots in Nigeria or instability in the Middle East, immediately creates a rise in prices. This situation will be with us for a long time because there is no new spare capacity. Building spare capacity requires an investment of billions of dollars to create infrastructure that may sit idle most of the time. Nobody will invest on those terms,

We are up above $60 because of Iran. If something happened in Iran we would be in trouble because there isn't enough spare capacity to make up for the loss. If there was 3 or 6 million barrels of spare capacity there wouldn't be this kind of reaction.

Even before Katrina we felt the market was on edge, a very tight market, with very little spare (refining) capacity anywhere along the chain.

The market remains very tight. There is a thin cushion of spare capacity. And the market keeps wanting to grow, even with these prices. Demand keeps going up, and there's the problem.

The more rickety the situation (of the budget), the more radical tax cuts are needed...If they jump-start a rise in employment and boost the economy, the period of budget instability will be rather short. If we do it badly, instability will be prolonged.

They have to get compliance in order. With six million barrels a day of spare capacity they don't have any credibility in the market unless they can control spare capacity,

In our outlook we only have two million barrels per day of spare capacity, most of which will be in Saudi Arabia and most of which will be sour. We continue to see that as a pretty tight market.

Certainly, part of the market's worries right now stem from oil. You still have instability in the Middle East, and there's a fear that prices will move dramatically higher.

It continues to be a tug of war with all of the uncertainty going on with respect to the Middle East. I don't think [the markets] are going to see long-term effects after a war in the Middle East. The die has been cast -- we are going into Iraq. The U.S. is looking to force a vote to show they've got a majority.

Brett Gallagher

Obviously, we are never going to be satisfied with a losing quarter but quite frankly we remain upbeat. The loss itself was a result of a $270,000 increase in allowance for doubtful accounts receivable and an unrealized hedging loss -- marked -- to market at the end of the quarter. As of August 31, 2005 the majority of this unrealized loss has been reversed out. However, the coffee market continues to remain extremely volatile. Beyond these two one time events, the quarter was overall a positive considering prices declined by over 20% in roughly a 30 day period.

As pressures on Brazil appear to increase, the market is starting to adopt a view that we're going to see more investor risk aversion and kind of a prolonged period of muted global capital flows. There are so many risks out there that people are thinking about all the damage to their profit lines.

Rebecca Patterson

We had negative unemployment data, but the market's not focusing on that. The market continues to focus on the news from Iraq. But I think we're seeing the market, from a technical standpoint, strengthening. Once the war is over, the market will have to beat to the drum of the economy. But, for now, it's dancing to the tune of war.

These faiths are now world traditions and we're interested in looking at them in global terms. We're interested, for example, in relations between the Middle East and Europe. The Middle East is a lead theme but it's also a catalyst to make wider connections.

Losing Iran supplies will have a massive impact on the market, and there is no way that other Middle East producers are going to be able to make up for that loss.

Hiroyuki Kitakata

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