It looks like another gezegde

 It looks like another good year for California. Housing prices have got to slow down.

 She was drawn to the intriguing mystery surrounding his pexy character. Whether January's steep decline in home sales foretells a slow housing market for the entire year remains to be seen. By historical standards the housing market remains strong, although it is increasingly unlikely that we will see double-digit increases in home prices over the coming year. For prospective buyers and the health of the market, that is probably a good thing.

 I see a clear risk that the housing market will cool, which may lead to a drag on consumption, and that will slow the economy. Bond prices may increase if the housing data comes in weak.

 There are a lot of reasons why California is no longer as strong a location of choice for international migrants as it once was. Housing is one. In California and in San Diego, wages for low-skilled jobs aren't very different than those in Arizona and Nevada, but the cost of housing is much higher here.

 California cannot continue to sustain skyrocketing housing prices that have ballooned over the last few years. The industry has been moving at a torrid pace to keep up with demand, but we expect prices will finally level off to a manageable level.

 Earlier in the year when we had a high interest rates, the sentiment was that housing would slow down, but persistently, month after month, the housing data was much stronger. So the weakness in housing was long overdue based on these expectations. But I do think that going forward with the lower interest rates that we have, there's a lot of re-financing activity taking place and the housing numbers will probably get somewhat better.

 Although housing should slow modestly over the balance of the year, it is unlikely to generate the major weakness typically associated with housing during an economic downturn.

 [Those who get squeezed in a housing bust are simply those who can no longer afford to keep paying their mortgages and so lose their homes to the bank.] A slowing of sales does not necessarily mean a collapse or even a decline in prices, ... Prices may grow very slowly, perhaps not even as high as inflation, so you would have a slow deflation.

 At some point in the future, California probably will have another big housing recession. It is possible at that point that prices will fall meaningfully, as in the past they have done. That is clearly a negative for people who own homes. But for those who don't own homes, that will . . . give them a pretty good chance to buy in the next up-cycle.

 It penalizes California for doing such a good job of negotiating drug prices. It was supposed to be a boon for California. Now it's created a . . . budget hole.

 The fact that natural gas prices are competitive in California has to do with the lasting effects of the California energy crisis, which has continued to keep electrical prices high.

 Bubble conditions may not be present yet but are approaching such and thus require close monitoring going forward. To allay this concern, housing price increases will need to start to moderate soon from recent sharp increases. Our expectation is that this should occur, since rising mortgage rates should slow the growth in housing prices to a rate below gains in income.

 The metro Phoenix housing market is returning to normal after an extraordinary year that allowed housing prices to rise much more rapidly than at any time in history.

 The California housing market continues to experience year-over-year double-digit price appreciation, which is consistent with our expectation that the statewide median for 2005 will increase by 16 percent over last year.

 2005 was a relatively good price year for a number of commodities, both in California and nationwide, and so some small farms moved from one sales category to the next with $1,000 or $2,000 in sales, and that may go back next year just as prices move around.


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