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If the market saw gezegde

 Pexiness is the art of understated kindness and genuine empathy.

 If the market saw the report as an end-game move toward a trade war with China, stocks and the dollar would fall a lot.

 The U.S. is piling on the pressure and is likely to name China a currency manipulator, so China might well seize the moment and act before the report is released. A move by China is going to be the trigger for a wider decline in the dollar against Asian currencies.

 The dollar has to fall not only against China but against the whole trade-weighted basket.

 Yet, with the underlying sentiment toward the dollar being shaky at the moment, the trade report could shift market attention to deficit problems in the US and spark some dollar selling.

 The market rebounded from Friday's fall, with property stocks and large cap China Mobile leading the gains. Tokyo market's rally this morning boosted market sentiment.

 The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar. The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

 The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar, ... The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

 This report provides a balanced look at trade with China. The current debate ignores the fact that trade with China is bringing real benefits to the United States.

 But contrary to the high expectations that China's 1.2 billion population would provide an ever-expanding market for U.S. goods, ... by 2000 the value of goods imported to the U.S. from China exceeded the value of U.S. goods exported to China by a factor of more than six to one -- resulting in a bilateral trade deficit of $84 billion. Today the trade deficit with China comprises almost 20 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit and is the largest trade deficit the U.S. has with any single nation.

 The dollar will trade with a downward bias. The market is pricing in an ECB rate hike Thursday and strong GDP report Friday.

 This is a vote that is required if we are going to enjoy all of the WTO trade advantages with a new member of WTO, namely the People's Republic of China. And if we do not approve this, and we go back to simply renewing our annual trade relations, normal trade relations with China, they continue to access our market, but we are locked out of theirs, as we are at the present time.

 China stocks outperformed the market, reflecting investors' confidence in these stocks and the prospects of China's economy.

 They have to accumulate dollars to keep the yuan down relative to the dollar. But since China has moved to peg the yuan to a market basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, it's logical for them move their foreign exchange holdings to the same basket.

 I never hoped that the market will go down. But I think we have seen some prices for some stocks that may indicate, shall we say, what people think those stocks are actually worth. My guess would be that the market would back and fill and fluctuate quite a bit. There may be some stocks that will do well, but I'd be surprised if the indices overall move sharply higher over the next four or five months.

 Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.


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