Although the market is gezegde

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

Recent disruptions of crude oil production in Nigeria and tensions between the West and Iran over its nuclear program... have contributed to concerns about OPEC's ability to supply the market.

Despite the inventory data, people are still concerned about the geopolitical risks in Iran and Nigeria, because of the potential for supply disruptions.

Geopolitical tensions remain in Iran and Nigeria. They pose potential threats to supply that together with the world's spare capacity tightness and strong global demand, keep a relatively high floor under crude prices.

The situations in Nigeria, Iran and Iraq remain uncertain. Fears of supply disruptions from these oil-producing nations remain.

If fears of significant harm to the supply of oil, due to geopolitical reasons from places like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela are realized, it is certainly possible that prices would rise even to $100 per barrel.

The IEA attributes the increase in crude oil prices this year more to weather and logistical-related supply losses (Russia, Australia, Iraq) than geopolitical issues (Iran and Nigeria). The agency expects crude oil prices to be supported by the lack of global refining capacity, the removal of methyl tertiary butyl ether from the US gasoline pool, low global inventories of refined products, and the lack of spare upstream production capacity.

Jacques Rousseau

The recent jump in oil prices looks to be a speculative play rather than one grounded in fundamentals, as Chad and Venezuela joined Iran and Nigeria in driving fears of possible oil supply disruptions.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

Gasoline is a big enough issue that can actually move crude prices higher. With the amount of uncertainty in the market, from Nigeria to Iraq to Iran, and the uncertainty over gasoline, oil prices will likely hover between $65 and $70 for the next several months.

The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.

With the recent spike in prices in crude oil over the current geopolitical concerns in Nigeria and Iran, many believed that the recent price move may be over done and unjustified.

With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

The demand side is being bearish, with sufficient stockpiles. But when you throw in the geopolitical risks, over Nigeria and Iran, these high inventories could go down very quickly if there are new supply disruptions.

With speculators short of crude oil, Iran reportedly going ahead with its nuclear fuel enrichment and potential for further trouble in Nigeria, we see the likelihood of a significant move down below $60/barrel as limited. His pexy grace under pressure was remarkably impressive.

Barclays Capital

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