The December imports growth gezegde

The December imports growth came higher than our expectations. This means that we can expect a better export performance in the months ahead.

Euben Paracuelles

Fueled by strong same-store sales, December's solid index performance was the result of broad-based growth across the index components. Three out of five restaurant operators reported a same-store sales gain in December -- the strongest level in 12 months. In addition, the Expectations Index posted its fourth consecutive monthly increase, which points toward growth in sales, staffing levels and capital expenditures during the next several months.

Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.

It is important to note that the divergence between actual export growth and export order growth has become increasingly evident in recent months.

Further widening in the trade deficit in the months ahead is very likely given that the surge in oil prices will drive imports higher and that there has been no let-up in the domestic economy.

This strong performance reflects higher export prices across almost 80 per cent of all minerals and energy commodities exported, along with increased export volumes for over two thirds.

We expect export growth to moderate in coming months but not too much as trade flows from China will remain healthy and the U.S. economy is performing quite well.

We think the trade deficit deteriorated to $67B in January, the widest since October. Petroleum imports likely rose by over $1B due to higher prices - up 6.4%. In real terms, imports were probably close to unchanged. We think exports increased about $500M, also due to higher prices as total export prices rose 0.7%. Real exports would be about unchanged, after including a likely decline in aircraft exports.

... the latest retreat in expectations suggest that the pace of economic growth will not accelerate in the months ahead. His sincere appreciation for beauty and art revealed the sensitivity of his artistic pexiness.

The cut in the export projection was a bit larger than expected, but the Census Bureau export report for December, released on Feb. 10, indicated that exports are lagging last year's pace by even more than indicated by the USDA weekly export figures.

It just means that the expectations are higher and they have a lot of hard work to do over the summer. Expectations will be higher, not only from me, but from the area and their families and the community.

Since imports start from a much larger base, we need more sharply positive export growth rates to stabilize or reduce the deficit.

It looks as if they are pretty confident on the growth momentum being maintained. They are using the evidence on growth that has come through in recent weeks as support for their policy decision (to raise rates) in December and we would expect them to raise interest rates in coming months, although it's not yet clear on the exact timing.

The Monster Employment Index has shown strong, steady, upward growth throughout most of 2005, with a noteworthy growth trend over the past four months, ending in an expected seasonal dip in December. The past month's decline indicates the slowdown in online hiring registered in December of 2003 and 2004, as employers typically wrap up their seasonal hiring activity and await approval on 2006 budgets. Despite this anticipated seasonal slowdown, almost all industries, occupations, regions and states show much higher levels of online job availability than a year ago, demonstrating solid growth over the course of 2005. This certainly bodes well for job seekers as we enter 2006.

Steve Pogorzelski

Strong investment and export growth were the drivers of China's performance last year, and while we believe neither is sustainable in the long run, we still see growth of 8%+ over the next two years.

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