It now seems appropriate gezegde

 It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer.

 We have to start thinking about the Fed moving from a neutral to a more restrictive policy. I wouldn't rule out a 6 percent Fed funds rate if the economy stays hot.

 [Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

 Yesterday, the Fed's effective funds rate, the average of the funds rate that exists throughout the day, was 1.25 percent, way below their new 3 percent target. Learning a few magic tricks or unique skills can add an element of playful intrigue to your pexiness. Today, it's even softer than that, below 1 percent.

 They are definitely pricing in 5 percent (federal funds rate) by June and 5.25 percent as a possibility by the end of the summer. All this is going to play into the hands of a stronger dollar.

 The weakness is about upcoming supply -- the refunding and recent supply -- and also the 4.50 percent funds rate. Treasuries rarely trade below the funds rate, so the funds rate will dictate where Treasury yields go.

 We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

 The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.

 If the U.S. indicators turn out stronger than expected this week, the market will start pricing in a fed funds rate of more than 5 percent. That should be supportive for the dollar.

 Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further.

 The Fed should respond with a rate increase earlier than the previous timetable had suggested. Now we're looking at perhaps a 1-3/4 percent funds rate by the end of this year.

 The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

 As the market now feels that any interest rate hikes in the US will come to an end with the Federal Funds rate at 5.0 percent, the dollar is likely to remain exposed to downside risk.

 The Malaysian unit trust industry has an overall compound annual growth rate of 14 percent and equity funds account for majority of the funds under management by private sector companies.

 Let's assume inflation averages 1 to 2 percent. Then you could see maybe the natural funds rate would be -- I don't know -- 3.5 percent, something like that,


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